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Federal Fall Economic Statement 2024
A Government in Chaos:
Canada’s Fall Economic Statement 2024
In what should have been a routine day where the federal government was set to release its Fall Economic Statement, the Trudeau government was thrust into chaos with the unexpected resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland via social media just after 9am. In her letter, Freeland noted the Prime Minister told her on Friday she would be moved from her role at Finance to another role in cabinet during the next shuffle. She also referenced disagreements she and Prime Minister Trudeau had on “the best path forward for Canada” amidst the “grave challenge” posed by U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump’s “aggressive economic nationalism.”
According to reports, Freeland’s resignation caught Trudeau and his office off guard, causing them to scramble on what to do later that afternoon with the Fall Economic Statement. At 1:30pm, over four hours after Freeland’s resignation was posted, the government announced they would still table the statement that afternoon.
At 4pm, long-time Trudeau-ally and childhood friend Dominic Leblanc was sworn in as the new Finance Minister and Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs at Rideau Hall.
At the same time, House Leader Karina Gould tabled the Fall Economic Statement, which shows the deficit has ballooned to $61.9 billion for 2023/24, $21.9 billion over what was originally forecast in the 2024 budget. The deficit blows past the guardrail Freeland announced at the 2023 fall economic statement to hold the deficit at $40.1 billion.
While the grim news of the deficit is cause for concern, FES does note the rate of inflation has been declining over the course of 2024 and is within the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent. Freeland’s other two 2023 fiscal guardrails were met–keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio below 42.1 percent and the deficit-to-GDP ratio below one percent by the 2026-27 fiscal year.
What’s in FES:
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The deficit is projected to be $61.9 billion, $21.9 billion over what was projected in the budget.
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The 2024/25 deficit is now projected to be $48.3 billion, it was originally projected to be $39.8 billion.
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$1.3 billion on a “cutting edge” border security package for Public Safety Canada, the Canada Border Services Agency, the Communications Security Establishment and the RCMP.
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The previously announced GST/HST break for holiday essentials such as groceries, restaurant meals, children’s clothing and gifts.
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$600 million for the RCMP’s gun buyback program.
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Accelerating $2 billion in low-cost financing through the Apartment Construction Loan Program, supporting 4,000 homes to be built faster.
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$50 million over two years, starting in 2025-26, through the Affordable Housing Fund for affordable housing providers to use for pre-development work.
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Introduction of the Canada Greener Homes Loan Program to deliver an additional $600 million in interest-free loans for homeowners to reduce energy costs.
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Doubling the loan limit for the Canada Secondary Suite Loan Program to $80,000.
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A fourth $1 billion round of funding for the Venture Capital Catalyst Initiative (VCCI).
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Expansion of the Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) program with new eligibility requirements and tax incentives. Under this, businesses will be able to claim capital expenditures. Public companies will also be permitted to claim the 35 per cent tax incentives for research and development - up from 15 per cent.
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An increase of the annual expenditure limit for the SR&ED tax credit, allowing companies to claim up to $1.575 million per year.
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Eligibility for the SR&ED credit has also been expanded with an increase to the prior-year taxable capital phase-out thresholds for the enhanced credit from $10 million and $50 million to $15 million and $75 million.
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Removing the 30 per cent rule that currently restricts Canadian pension funds from owning more than 30 per cent of the voting shares of a Canadian entity.
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Bolstering Canada’s AI industry by developing a program that would provide up to $45 billion in aggregate loan and equity investments for AI data centre projects in which Canadian pension funds are investors.
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Design and implementation details of the EV Supply Chain investment tax credit which provides a 10 per cent refundable tax credit rate for eligible building properties related to three segments of the EV supply chain–EV assembly, EV battery production and cathode active material production.
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Working with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation to explore options for using mortgage loan insurance to support the construction of more two-to-four-unit homes.
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Fully reinstating the Accelerated Investment Incentive, as well as immediate expensing for manufacturing or processing machinery and equipment, clean energy generation and energy conservation equipment and zero- emission vehicles.
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Expanding the Clean Hydrogen investment tax credit to include hydrogen produced from methane pyrolysis.
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Restricting the use of non-compete agreements to protect workers’ rights, promote labour mobility and boost innovation.
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A commitment to an additional multimodal bridge over the Ottawa River.
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Exploring potential changes to airport authority ground leases.
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Intent to introduce legislative amendments to grant CBSA new authorities to inspect goods destined for export to crack down on auto theft.
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Intent to introduce the Small Business and Innovation Procurement Act that would obligate federal government departments and agencies to procure a minimum of 20 percent goods and services from small-and-medium sized Canadian businesses.
The Threat of a Trade War
The Fall Economic Statement comes in the midst of threats made by U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. In her letter, Freeland stressed the need to “take that threat extremely seriously” and a need for Canada to keep its “fiscal powder dry today” so there are reserves for a “coming tariff war.” She warned against “costly political gimmicks” as they can make Canadians doubt whether the government understands the “gravity of the moment.”
The Fall Economic Statement does include $1.3 billion for “cutting edge” border security. This funding is in response to threats of tariffs from president-elect Trump.
After Trump is sworn in in the new year, discussions with his administration and avoiding the implementation of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and services will be top priority for both the federal and provincial levels of government throughout the country.
A Government in Chaos
Freeland’s resignation comes after a very difficult year for the Trudeau government which has seen their polling numbers plummet amidst high unemployment numbers and a tough economic climate. It is well known there has been unrest within the Liberal caucus and calls for the Prime Minister to resign. Many MPs have been concerned with the government’s direction and its negative impact on the party’s electoral chances in the next general election.
A major disagreement between the former finance Minister and the Prime Minister was apparently a policy that would have delivered a $250 cheque to Canadians earning less than $150,000 annually. The cheques were expected to cost the government a total of $4.68 billion. However, the Liberal government has yet to be able to find an opposition party to support legislation to enact the policy, making it unlikely to come to fruition. The two also disagreed on the temporary tax break on essential items over the holiday season which is anticipated to cost $1.6 billion in lost revenue.
Freeland’s resignation follows those of other high-profile members of the Trudeau cabinet. Earlier this morning Housing Minister Sean Fraser announced he would be stepping down from his role and not running in the next general election. Fraser was considered a top performer in cabinet by Liberals, his resignation is viewed as a significant loss. Less than a month ago, MP Randy Boissonnault resigned from cabinet following allegations regarding his business dealings and shifting claims about his Indigenous ancestry.
Earlier this fall, 23 MPs signed a letter calling for the Prime Minister to resign but refused to make their names public. However, earlier today a number of MPs publicly called for his resignation including West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast- Sea to Sky Country MP Patrick Weiler,Hamilton East-Stoney Creek MP Chad Collins, Mount Royal MP Anthony Housefather, Markham Stouffville MP Helena Jaczek and Glengarry-Prescott-Russel MP Frances Drouin.
What Comes Next?
Following the easter break next week, the government will spend the majority of April debating and passing the budget.
Opposition Reaction
Conservative Party of Canada
In reaction to Freeland’s resignation, Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre said the Prime Minister has lost control and we cannot accept this chaos and division as we are staring down the barrel of a 25% trade tariff from our largest trading partner and closest ally.
New Democratic Party
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh called for Justin Trudeau’s resignation but remained vague when asked if he would be pulling his support for the government. He and his party are open to all options when it comes to forcing no confidence vote and forcing an early general election but would not make a commitment.
Bloc Québecois
When speaking to reporters, Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet stated that the Trudeau government is done and is completely dysfunctional. He called on the Prime Minister to ask the Governor General to dissolve parliament and call a general election. He said Canada needs a new government that can stand up to the new economic challenges that we will face with the new U.S. government.
Team Canada: Reaction from the Premiers
Freeland’s resignation comes as Canada’s Premiers met in Toronto to discuss President-elect Trump’s tariff threats. When speaking to reporters, Ontario Premier Doug Ford noted all of them were concerned about Freeland’s resignation that Ottawa was “in chaos.” Ford stated the federal government needs to be focused on working with the provinces to combat these threats. He also said the federal government needs a plan to reach its NATO 2% defence spending target along with strong and visible action to protect our borders.
The Premiers are also focused on portraying stability as they prepare to negotiate with the US early next year. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith pointed out that she and her colleagues “have a secure mandate” from voters.“This is a stable table and I think it’s up to us to continue offering that continuity if there is that uncertainty happening at the federal level.”
The premiers will travel to Washington in February on a Team Canada mission to promote trade.
What comes next?
To pass FES, the governing Liberals will need the support of the NDP, Bloc Quebecois or Conservatives. All of their leaders called for Prime Minister Trudeau to resign earlier today, making it more difficult for him to secure their support for the legislation. The House of Commons is set to rise for the year on Tuesday December 17.
The appointment of Dominic Leblanc as Minister of Finance is a move to maintain support for the Prime Minister and his team within the Liberal Caucus. Leblanc is well-liked by his colleagues and has been able to bring stability to several controversial files throughout the Trudeau government’s tenure.
When speaking to reporters after his swearing in, Leblanc said he intends to continue working with the Premiers in discussions with the incoming Trump administration. His focus will be on shared priorities of border security and economic prosperity.
What happens to Prime Minister Trudeau is unknown and he has yet to speak publicly. To give him and his team time to decide on their next move, he could decide to prorogue parliament. It is unclear how he would be able to stay on as Leader and avoid an early election if he refuses to step down.